A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
