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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.